Next PM? (from new york times)

By THOMAS FULLER
Published: March 23, 2009

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — A slew of political scandals gripping Malaysia and a transfer of power fraught with uncertainty have shaken the elite here, with exquisitely poor timing.

As a major trading nation, Malaysia has been slammed by the global downturn. Its exports have collapsed by nearly one-third, and current projections show that its economy will shrink by as much as 5 percent this year.

Yet the main preoccupation of the government and opposition parties appears to be what analysts say is an increasingly dysfunctional political system. The man in line to become prime minister has been linked to the murder of a Mongolian woman whose body was obliterated with military-grade explosives.

The leader of the main opposition party awaits trial on sodomy charges, in a highly politicized case. The government is using draconian laws to prosecute other opposition figures, and last week it suspended a member of Parliament for one year after he called the prime-minister-in-waiting a murderer. And a state legislature has been paralyzed for six weeks by a dispute over who should govern.

“At the rate things are going, we’re going to be a failed state within a decade,” said Salehuddin Hashim, secretary general of the People’s Justice Party, the largest opposition party.

For Malaysia, an oil-rich country with a large, well-educated middle class, the pessimism may seem hyperbolic. But analysts say the current political woes strike at the heart of the functioning of government, damaging institutions like the royalty, the judiciary and the police.

“I see a rough ride ahead for the country,” said Zaid Ibrahim, the founder of Malaysia’s largest law firm, who resigned as law minister in September over the government’s practice of detaining its critics without trial. “The institutions of government have become so one-sided it will take years to restore professionalism and integrity.”

Much of the anxiety is focused on the rise of Najib Razak, a veteran politician in line to become prime minister sometime after the governing party’s annual general assembly, which starts Tuesday. No date for his ascension has been set, and some Malaysians speculate that the incumbent, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, will hold on to power, though he has said he will step down.

Mr. Najib’s supporters say he will reverse the sagging fortunes of the governing party, the United Malays National Organization, and offer decisive leadership, a contrast to the languid style of Mr. Abdullah. But Mr. Najib lacks popular support, and many expect further crackdowns on his opponents if he becomes prime minister. The government already seems to be taking a harder line, shutting two opposition newspapers on Monday while the police used tear gas to break up a rally by opposition leaders in the northern state of Kedah.

In a speech on Wednesday, Mr. Zaid called on the king, Mizan Zainal Abidin, to reject Mr. Najib if the party puts him forward as prime minister, and to appoint someone who would “bring us back from the brink.”

Mr. Najib declined to comment for this article.

The highest-profile scandal to tarnish his reputation is the murder of the Mongolian, Altantuya Shaariibuu, the mistress of Mr. Najib’s foreign policy adviser. Prosecutors say Ms. Shaariibuu was killed in October 2006 by government commandos who also serve as bodyguards to the country’s top leaders.

Mr. Najib has not been charged with any crime, and he denies having known Ms. Shaariibuu or ever having met her.

According to news accounts, Ms. Shaariibuu had been seeking her share of a commission — the opposition calls it a bribe — worth about $155 million, paid by a French company as part of a deal reached by the government to buy submarines. Mr. Najib, who is defense minister as well as deputy prime minister, handled the submarine purchase.

The huge size of the commission — about 10 percent of the total cost of the submarines — is not being investigated, despite an official acknowledgment by the Malaysian government that it was made to a company linked to Mr. Najib’s aide, who was acquitted in connection with Ms. Shaariibuu’s murder.

Lawyers say the handling of the case has been irregular, and they criticize the prosecution for failing to call Mr. Najib to testify at his aide’s trial.

Perhaps more worrying for the country is the standoff in Perak, a state where since early February the police have barred lawmakers who oppose the governing party from entering government buildings.

Mr. Najib spearheaded an effort to install a new chief minister in Perak by claiming that he had enough defectors from the opposition coalition, the Pakatan Rakyat, which last year took control of the State Assembly for the first time since the country won independence from Britain in 1957.

Both sides remain at an impasse, and the sultan of Perak has rejected a plea by the speaker of the Assembly for a new election, which polls indicate would probably restore the opposition coalition to power.

Ibrahim Suffian, director of the Merdeka Center, an independent polling agency, said that as the governing party’s popularity wanes, Malaysia is failing a key test of any democracy: the peaceful transfer of power.

“Malaysian democracy hasn’t fully matured, in the sense that those who lost the elections are unwilling to accept the results,” he said. The United Malays National Organization has governed the country since independence but nearly lost power in elections last March, a watershed that put into question Malaysia’s ethnic-based party system.

Mr. Zaid, the former law minister, traces Malaysia’s current troubles to the privileges given to the country’s dominant ethnic group, the Malays. Governments led by the United Malays National Organization have provided contracts, discounts and special quotas to Malays through a far-reaching program of preferences. “We have sacrificed democracy for the supremacy of one race,” said Mr. Zaid, who himself is Malay. “It’s a political hegemony.”

The other two major ethnic groups, Chinese and Indian, have withdrawn support for the governing party in recent years and now largely back the opposition.

Declining support for the governing party has heightened the personal rivalry between Mr. Najib and Anwar Ibrahim, the opposition leader facing sodomy charges. In a measure of the political nature of the case, Mr. Anwar’s accuser met with Mr. Najib before going to the police.

“Our position vis-à-vis Najib is clear,” Mr. Anwar said in an interview. “He has become so repressive and crude in his methods.”

Mr. Anwar added, “There’s no way we will have any dealing or respect for him.”


**A version of this article appeared in print on March 24, 2009, on page A5 of the New York edition.